I know who is going to win the Cricket World Cup! A Pakistani cricketer told me it's not going to be them, and then gave me the pre-printed scorecard with all the scores on for the final on April 2nd! Ok, fixing aside we are up and running on the subcontinent and here are my tips!
So, after stuffing Australia in the Ashes and setting a world record eight successive international Twenty20 victories with the opening win in the two match drawn series England reverted to type in the 50 over, getting stuffed 6-1 in the Commonwealth Banks series, an identical hiding to the last time England were Down Under, hardly great preparation for the World Cup. Collinwood's team wasn't outplayed as such but just not that bothered, a malaise they have suffered with 50 over cricket for nearly two decades. In fact England just didn't bother in the series and effectively threw it, why I backed Australia to win every match and the series. Flower constantly made up injuries to rest key players and the Australian public witnessed what can only be described as beer and concessions selling exercise rather than competitive cricket. The fact 38 wides were bowled in the final match is evidence enough for an investigation...if either were the Pakistani national team, of course. Their opening game against Holland didnt convince either.
Australia goes into the World Cup chasing a fourth successive title, an impressive feat, pretty unbeatable at this format, although not everyone's favourites this time, McGrath, Warne and Hayden no longer there to get them out of the proverbial. As for England? Well the last time they did well in the World Cup I was there in Australia in 1992, Gouch's team losing a flat final to Pakistan, my disappointment tempered by the fact I had bet $20 dollars on the Pakistani's at the start of the tournament at 11-1. The mercurial Pakistanis can beat anyone on their day as they have such depth in talent but sadly the bookies run the game there now and so the nation self-ostracised. Although I don't think they will win this one as the world scrutinises every ball they bowl the winner will come from the sub-continent, India and Sri-Lanka favourites to make the final. Its hard to look past those two to be fair as Australia don't have the bowlers for the pitches and nor do South Africa, although New Zealand always do well for some reason in the 50 over, perhaps one-day internationals what they are set up for with their bits n pieces cricketers. If you fancy a real outsider then Bangladesh on their home turf at 50-1 could pull a surprise and make the semi-final. Iqbal is a superb talent and they are improving all the time. The fact India have run up nearly 400 on the opening day against them suggests it will bear risky punt as their bowling is dreadful.
-The Odds to Win the Trophy-
India 3/1
Sri-lanka 4/1
Australia 5/1
South Africa 5/1
Pakistan/8/1
New Zealand 16/1
West Indies 16/1
50/1 bar the rest....
If you fancy an India V Sri-Lanka final then grab 9/1 or if you fancy Australia to make their 4th final in a row then they are 12/1 to meet Sri-Lanka and 14/1 to meet India.
For England to make the final its 12/1 v India and 14/1 v South Africa. Yes England sprung a surprise to make the T20 final and the win it but they are rubbish at 50 over cricket, mentally shot after the Ashes, this one tour too far. Don't back them.
-Top Run Scorer-
England's move to perhaps use Kevin Pietersen as pinch-hitter/opener encouraged me to have a fiver on him at 33/1 to be top scorer for the whole tournament. Normally I would go for someone like Chris Gayle but the West Indies are so poor they could lose to anyone and so out early. Sehwag at 10/1 looks great value after his huge score in match one, as does Amla for South Africa at likewise. Trott for England/South Africa scores big but too slowly. Gambhir is also tempting at 25/1 for India and huge hitters Sangakkara and Jayawardene are sure to be there or there about. I'm not seeing any real value for Australia this time around as far as runs go.
-Most runs in the tournament favourites-
Tendulker 12/1
Sehwag 16/1
Watson 16/1
Amla 16/1
Trott 20/1
Wicket taking wise thrilling Sri-Lanka star 'Malinga the Slinger' tops the list at 12-1, fellow leg stump detonators Brett Lee and S Tait close behind at 16/1. Harbhajan Singh is the best priced spinner on his dry and dusty home pitches and so good value at 20/1. But my favourite one-day cricketer and the guy I begged Kepler Wessels to try and buy for Northants some four years ago, Umar Gul, is top value at 20-1, a sensational 50 over man that can reverse the all like no other to clean up the innings.. Muralitharan is 20/1 for his last hurrah and fellow tweaker Graeme Swann is 33\1 to be top wicket taker. I know Swanny will be well up for this but he is not the master yet on Indian wickets. Mitchell Johnson at 25/1 is hardly generous, a man who has little control of the ball.
-The Tournament-
It was a disaster in the West Indies and no cricket fan who paid good money to see the games out there has forgiven them for the showpiece final finishing in the dark. The stadiums weren't ready and the crime rate still too high on some of the islands, the West Indian players still too poorly paid and so the competition there open to match-fixing. West Indian test players that don't play IPL get the same salary as good English county players, believe it or not, around 50k a year. India, too, didn't get their big two stadiums ready, although most fans there are only interested in Indian games.
There are just two groups, A and B, seven teams in each, three minnows of Canada, Holland and Kenya, Ireland now above that standard. The groups are fairly even although it's hard not to finish in the top four for automatic qualification to the quarter finals beginning March 23rd.That is four weeks of group matches though and again the tournament just too long. It begins in February and finishes in April. Imagine if the soccer world cup lasted that long.
Group A
Sri-Lanka
Australia
Pakistan
New Zealand
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Canada
Group B
India
England
South Africa
West Indies
Bangladesh
Ireland
Holland
The England Matches
Holland - Tuesday 22nd February (9:00 am GMT)
India - Sunday the 27th February (9:00 am GMT)
Ireland - Wednesday March 2nd.
(9:00 am GMT)
South Africa - Sunday March 6th (4:00am GMT)
Bangladesh - Friday March 11th (8:30am GMT)
West Indies - Thursday March 17th (9:00am GMT)
I'm pretty sure that India or Sri-Lanka will make the final and England won't. India are the best side in the world and the best equipped for the conditions. South Africa will implode as per usual by being too conservative and Pakistan will either be brilliant or terrible. But don't discount Bangladesh sneaking through and making the semi-finals as well know anything can happen in one-day cricket on the sub-continent.
My Fantasy Cricket side on espncricinfo.com!
'lookaroundcafe'
Iqbal ( Bang)
Sehwag (Ind)
Gayle (W.I)
Styris (N.Z)
Jayawardene ( S.L)
Joyce (Irl)
Dohni (Ind)
Gul (pak)
Steyn( RSA)
Malinga( SL)
Tahir (RSA)
Summary: More cricket
India to win the World Cup! 
